The Bay Area and the nation see low COVID rates this January, but experts warn a surge could still happen later.
Bay Area: It’s pretty wild how the COVID numbers are looking this January. The area, along with the whole country, is seeing the lowest positive testing rates in four years. No winter surge is in sight, at least not yet, but experts are saying it could still show up later.
Remember that summer surge we had? It was mainly due to the FLiRT variant, and it hit the Bay Area pretty hard. But that wave faded away. Back in October, the LA Times was already warning us to brace for another spike in the coming months.
Usually, we see a winter surge after Thanksgiving and Christmas gatherings, especially with the colder weather. But this year, California has reported way fewer COVID cases through December and January, even though flu and RSV cases are on the rise.
As of January 15, the COVID positivity rate in California is just over 2%. That’s a huge drop compared to over 11% at the same time last year and the year before. Dr. Catherine Blish from Stanford even mentioned we’re having a bit of luck right now.
But don’t get too comfortable just yet. Wastewater surveillance is showing an uptick in the virus, which means another surge could be lurking around the corner. Dr. Erica Pan, the state epidemiologist, noted that we might see cases rise later since we had a later summer surge.
Only about 27% of Californians have gotten the updated 2024 COVID vaccine. However, many have received previous vaccinations and likely have some immunity from past infections. This could be why we’re not seeing a winter surge, but it might just be a temporary break.
Dr. Peter Chin-Hong from UCSF reminded us that predicting COVID is tricky. He emphasized the importance of humility in the face of uncertainty. Let’s hope this year isn’t too rough because we’ve got enough on our plates already.
