A potential TikTok ban could shift billions in ad revenue to Meta and other platforms
If TikTok gets the boot from US app stores, it could really hurt the platform. The Supreme Court might force TikTok’s parent company, Bytedance, to either sell off its US operations or shut down the app altogether. This means folks in the US might not even be able to download TikTok or get updates, making it pretty much useless.
A ban would definitely shake things up in the social media world. TikTok is a big player, and losing it would mean a lot of time and money up for grabs. According to Business Insider’s sister company, eMarketer, TikTok is expected to rake in about $12.34 billion in US ad revenue in 2024. If it loses 50% to 70% of that due to a ban, that’s a huge chunk of ad spending looking for a new home.
And guess who’s ready to cash in? Meta, the company behind Instagram and Facebook, could see a windfall of between $2.46 billion and $3.38 billion. Analysts from Morgan Stanley even say Meta would be the biggest winner if TikTok gets banned, thanks to its existing user base and data.
Instagram could also pick up some of the slack, as users might start scrolling there instead. eMarketer estimates that TikTok users spend nearly an hour a day on the app, and a lot of them are also on Instagram. That’s a lot of time up for grabs!
Morgan Stanley believes that for every 10% of TikTok’s US time that Meta captures, it could boost its earnings per share by about $0.30 to $0.60 in 2026. But it’s not just Meta that stands to gain; YouTube and Snapchat might also benefit from TikTok’s absence.
For advertisers, this situation is a reminder that no platform is untouchable. Danielle Dullaghan from the marketing agency Iris warns that brands shouldn’t put all their content eggs in one basket. James Poulter from House 337 adds that the brands and creators who will thrive are those who diversify across platforms and focus on their own assets, like websites and email lists. It’s all about being ready for whatever comes next!
