Maui Population Decline Leads to Millions in Lost Income for Hawaii

Maui’s population drop after wildfires has resulted in a staggering $50 million loss in annual income for Hawaii’s economy

Maui Population Decline Leads to Millions in Lost Income for Hawaii
Maui Population Decline Leads to Millions in Lost Income for Hawaii

Maui: The recent wildfires have really shaken things up on the island. More folks are leaving than moving in, which has dropped the population by over 1,000 people. This shift is costing Hawaii about $50 million in annual income, which is a big hit for the local economy.

New data from the University of Hawaii and the state’s Department of Taxation shows that between 430 and 510 residents affected by the fires have moved out of state. Plus, around 370 fewer people came to Maui from elsewhere than expected.

An economist from the Department of Taxation, Baybars Karacaovali, teamed up with a professor to dig into the tax data. They wanted to understand the long-term effects of the wildfires, which tragically took at least 102 lives and destroyed over 2,000 homes and businesses.

Their findings revealed that about 63% to 64% of the population loss was due to more people leaving, with some moving to other parts of Hawaii and others heading to the mainland. The drop in new arrivals only made things worse.

From an economic standpoint, this data is crucial. It shows just how much the fires have impacted state revenues. That $50 million loss in income means Hawaii’s tax collections could drop by over $3 million each year, affecting jobs and other economic activities.

Karacaovali mentioned that the Department of Taxation needs to consider these revenue impacts when discussing any new legislation.

It’s important to stay updated on the situation. There’s talk about tax relief for wildfire survivors, and having this detailed data helps figure out the potential costs of that relief.

Moore, the assistant professor, pointed out that many people still living in Maui after the fires could be encouraged to stay. Addressing housing challenges is key to keeping them on the island.

He’s not sure if the population changes have peaked yet, but based on past fires, most out-migration tends to happen within the first couple of years.

A survey found that one in five households affected by the fires is seriously thinking about leaving Maui. Survivors are facing tough times with housing shortages, job losses, and emotional stress.

Moore called the population data a preliminary estimate, noting that relying on tax filings has its limitations. Many displaced households haven’t filed taxes since the fires, which could mean the actual impact is even larger.

The study looked at over 5,000 people living in homes damaged by the fires. It showed that 1,420 residents relocated within the Lahaina area, 1,058 moved elsewhere on Maui, and 369 left the island entirely. The number of newcomers to Maui also dropped by 370.

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