Political analysts warn that Alberta’s Premier faces a tough balancing act in U.S. trade talks
Calgary: Premier Danielle Smith is really in a tricky spot right now. She’s trying to convince the incoming U.S. president, Donald Trump, not to impose hefty tariffs on Canadian goods, especially Alberta’s oil and gas exports.
Smith just met Trump at his Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida. The stakes are high because Trump plans to slap a 25% tariff on Canadian products right after he takes office. This has sparked a big debate across Canada about how to handle the situation.
Experts like Lisa Young from the University of Calgary say all Canadian leaders are stuck between trying to negotiate with Trump or risking a trade war. If Smith gets a special deal for Alberta, it could make her a hero at home but might be seen as a betrayal elsewhere in Canada.
Young points out that if Alberta gets an exemption, it could weaken Canada’s overall negotiating power. Smith’s trying to highlight the importance of the energy sector, but it’s a tightrope walk for sure.
With Prime Minister Justin Trudeau stepping down, provincial leaders are stepping up to fill the gap. Federal Foreign Affairs Minister Melanie Joly mentioned that all trade measures against the U.S. are on the table.
Smith has warned against blocking energy exports to the U.S. in retaliation, calling it an empty threat that could lead to a national unity crisis. Meanwhile, Ontario’s Doug Ford wants to keep all options open for retaliation.
When Trump first announced the tariffs, he linked them to his concerns about drugs and migrants crossing the border. But Smith believes Canada should focus on fixing the trade imbalance, which is a major issue for Trump.
Political scientists suggest that discussions about an energy embargo should be kept private to avoid showing weaknesses. Premiers are set to meet with Trudeau soon to discuss their strategy.
It’s a tough balancing act for Smith to push Alberta’s interests without making other provinces feel targeted. If provinces start turning against each other, it could make them easier targets for tariffs.
Still, Ford and Smith are reaching audiences that Trudeau can’t, especially on right-wing American networks. With no clear leadership, there’s a chance for multiple voices to contribute to a strategy.
Duane Bratt from Mount Royal University believes Smith is right to talk directly to Trump about the economic fallout of tariffs. He argues that explaining the impact isn’t appeasement; it’s just reality.
Some critics might call Smith out for engaging with Trump, but Bratt points out that many in her party support Trump’s policies. He questions whether it’s better to ignore the situation and let Ottawa handle it, especially with Trudeau’s recent resignation signaling weakness.
Colin Aitchison, a communications director, agrees that premiers need to step up during this leadership void. He thinks the worst thing would be for Smith to sit back and do nothing, which is why her visit to Mar-a-Lago was so important.
